James Hawthorne

Professor Emeritus
Department of Philosophy
University of Oklahoma

Formal Epistemology,
Philosophy of Logic
and Mathematics,
Philosophy of Science


I mainly work on logics of evidential support, especially the kind of probabilistic inductive logic called Bayesian Inference or Bayesian Confirmation Theory. I also work on logics of comparative support, belief, and comparative plausibility.

About my work and views on Probability and Statistics:

James Hawthorne : in A. Hajek and V.F. Hendricks (eds.), Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions, Chapter 6, Automated Press, 2009, pp. 65-74. final draft pdf

Inductive Logic and Confirmation Theory:

A Logic of Comparative Support: Qualitative Conditional Probability Relations Representable by Popper Functions : in A. Hajek and C. Hitchcock (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, Oxford U. Press, 2016, Chapter 13. pp. 277-295. final draft pdf.

Inductive Logic : The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Sept. 2004, revised Feb. 2008, major revision June 2011), Edward N. Zalta (ed.); pdf version available from theSEP, 151 pages. Online version at <http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/logic-inductive/>. Draft of April 2011 revision: final draft pdf.

Confirmation Theory : in Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay and Malcolm Forster (eds.), Philosophy of Statistics: Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Volume 7, 2011, Elsevier, pp. 333-389. final draft pdf

Bayesian Confirmation Theory : in S. French and J. Saatsi (eds.), The Continuum Companion to the Philosophy of Science, 2011, Continuum Press, pp. 197-213. final draft pdf

The Wason Task(s) and the Paradox of Confirmation : with Branden Fitelson, Philosophical Perspectives, 24, Epistemology, 2010, pp. 207-241, Elsevier. final draft pdf

An Even Better Solution to the Paradox of the Ravens : supplement to The Wason Task(s) and the Paradox of Confirmation, 13 pages. final draft pdf

How Bayesian Confirmation Theory Handles the Paradox of the Ravens : with Branden Fitelson, in James Fetzer and Ellery Eells (eds.), The Place of Probability in Science, 2010, Springer. final draft pdf

Degree-of-Belief and Degree-of-Support: Why Bayesians Need Both Notions : Mind, v. 114, no. 454, 2005, pp. 277-320. final draft pdf

Re-solving Irrelevant Conjunction with Probabilistic Independence : with Branden Fitelson, Philosophy of Science, v. 71, no. 4, 2004, pp. 505-514. final draft pdf

On the Nature of Bayesian Convergence : PSA1994, v. 1, 1994, pp. 241-249. final draft pdf

Bayesian Induction Is Eliminative Induction : Philosophical Topics, v. 21, no. 1, 1993, pp. 99-138. final draft pdf

Giving Up Judgement Empiricism: The Bayesian Epistemology of Bertrand Russell and Grover Maxwell : in C. W. Savage and C. A. Anderson (eds.), Rereading Russell: Essays on Bertrand Russell's Metaphysics and Epistemology, Minnesota Studies in Philosophy of Science, v. 12, 1989; University of Minnesota Press, pp. 234-248. final draft pdf

The Logic of Judgment and Belief:

Voting in Search of the Public Good: the Probabilistic Logic of Majority Judgments : unpublished manuscript. final draft pdf

The Lockean Thesis and the Logic of Belief : Franz Huber and Christoph Schmidt-Petri (eds.), Degrees of Belief, 2009, Synthese Library 342, pp. 49-74. final draft pdf

Three Models of Sequential Belief Updating on Uncertain Evidence : Journal of Philosophical Logic, v. 33, no. 1, 2004, pp. 89-123. final draft pdf

The Preface, the Lottery, and the Logic of Belief : with Luc Bovens, Mind, v. 108, no. 430, 1999, pp. 241-264. final draft pdf

Logics of Nonmonotonic Conditionals Related to Conditional Probabilities:

Lossy Inference Rules and their Bounds: a Brief Review : with David Makinson, in A. Koslow, A. Buchsbaum (eds.), The Road to Universal Logic, Studies in Universal Logic, Springer, 2015, pp. 385-407. final draft pdf

A Primer on Rational Consequence Relations, Popper Functions, and their Ranked Structures : Studia Logica, v. 102, no. 4, 2014, pp. 731-749. final draft pdf

Appendix to A Primer on Rational Consequence Relations,Popper Functions, and their Ranked Structures : appendix to A Primer on Rational Consequence Relations, Popper Functions, and their Ranked Structures, unpublished -- only available here -- pdf

New Horn Rules for Probabilistic Consequence: Is O+ Enough? : in S. O. Hansson (ed.), David Makinson on Classical Methods for Non-Classical Problems, Outstanding Contributions to Logic, v. 3, Springer, 2014, pp. 157-166. final draft pdf

The Quantitative/Qualitative Watershed for Rules of Uncertain Inference : with David Makinson, Studia Logica, v. 86, no. 2, 2007, pp. 247-297. final draft pdf

Nonmonotonic Conditionals that Behave Like Conditional Probabilities Above a Threshold : Journal of Applied Logic, v. 5, no. 4, 2007, pp. 625-637. final draft pdf

On the Logic of Nonmonotonic Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities: Predicate Logic : Journal of Philosophical Logic, v. 27, no. 1, 1998, pp. 1-34. final draft pdf

On the Logic of Nonmonotonic Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities : Journal of Philosophical Logic, v. 25, no. 2, 1996, pp. 185-218. final draft pdf

A Semantic Approach to Non-Monotonic Entailments : in J. F. Lemmer and L. N. Kanal (eds.), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 2, 1988, Elsevier Science Publishers, B.V. (North-Holland), pp. 251-262. final draft pdf

Logic, Mathematics, and the Sciences:

Mathematical Instrumentalism Meets the Conjunction Objection : Journal of Philosophical Logic, v. 25, no. 4, 1996, pp. 363-397. final draft pdf

For Whom the Bell Arguments Toll : with Michael Silberstein, Synthese, v. 102, 1995, pp. 99-138. final draft pdf

Validity in Intensional Languages: A New Approach : with William H. Hanson, Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic, v. 26, no. 1, 1985, pp. 9-35. final draft pdf